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作者：郑邮飞/F0284348、Z0010566/ 一德期货能源化工分析师 要点速览版 做多关键因素消失，甚至逐步进入过剩格局。 (ECNS) -- At the "Sweet Light" modern sugarcane industrial park in Quli Town, Fusui County, in Chongzuo, south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, sugarcane varieties including Guitang 44, Yunzhe 081609, Guitang 76, Zhongtang 3, and Zhongfu 1 are thriving, with most stalks standing more than three meters tall. The park rotates several varieties and plants them in separate zones to keep yields stable and the fields ecologically resilient. Yang Xue, who has worked in the sugarcane industry for eight years and now runs an agritech company, has watched the shift from farming by experience to farming by data. Virus-free seedlings and the cultivation methods that go with them can extend ratoon cropping from three years to about five, he said, with germination rates reaching 95%. "In Chongzuo, per-hectare sugarcane yield used to be around 60 metric tonnes. With new varieties, improved cultivation methods, and planting models, yields have now risen to 72 metric tonnes," he said. To manage the park's 333 hectares of contiguous fields, Yang's team has installed a smart irrigation system that combines water, fertilizer, and pesticide application. It can be run from a computer or a mobile app, with irrigation timing, flow, and volume set precisely. One worker can now cover more than 67 hectares. The system has since been upgraded to a dual-pipe design, Yang said, allowing water, fertilizer, and pesticides to be applied together and accurately. Annual electricity costs have fallen from 1,200 yuan (about $168) per hectare to 750 yuan (about $105). Four workers can now fertilize 40 hectares in a day, work that previously took 30 workers to cover less than seven hectares. Mechanized harvesting has cut costs as well. Cutting and loading by hand costs more than 16,500 yuan per hectare, based on a yield of 105 metric tons per hectare and a rate of 160 yuan per metric ton. With machine harvesting, farmers receive a state subsidy of about 3,000 yuan per hectare and pay only 750 to 1,200 yuan for the service. The park also returns chopped stalks to the fields, saving another 450 to 600 yuan per hectare in fertilizer. The Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences (CATAS) has been working with the Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences and other institutions on variety improvement, seedling propagation, pest control, green cultivation, and mechanical harvesting. Wu Qibin, a researcher at the Sugarcane Research Center of CATAS's Institute of Tropical Bioscience and Biotechnology, said Guangxi is China's core sugarcane-producing region, with more than 800,000 hectares under cultivation and over 60% of national sugar output. The industry is now pursuing two main goals, he said: breeding high-quality varieties suited to machine harvesting, and developing specialized machinery matched to those varieties. (By Tang Yuxian) 
。 短期价格在悲观情绪释放后仍存一定支撑。 最近的乙二醇堪称市场的明星品种，8月6日以来涨势如虹，得益于其基本面强劲支撑。 支撑因素分析 最关键的影响因素仍是海峡持续封锁，导致中东特别是沙特的货物难以运出，我国乙二醇进口自3月份以来持续下滑，预计9月份进口仍难有大的恢复，10月份进口需要看随后地缘缓解后是否有货物运出。 乙二醇供应缺失大于需求增量，尽管聚酯前期开工率低于去年，但长丝开工仍有韧性。 库存持续去化至近几年同期低位水平，偏低的库存进一步提高了价格弹性。 临近交割月时，供应特别是进口短期内大幅恢复概率较小，较低的库存以及终端的开工韧性导致短期乙二醇矛盾难解，吸引资金大幅入场。
二 | 后市展望 后期来看，近月乙二醇的矛盾只能通过挤压需求来实现硬平衡，同时配合国内供应略有边际恢复。经测算，聚酯开工需要降到77-78%左右才能实现乙二醇短期的相对平衡。
三 | 进入9月份，终端瓶片和短纤已经有装置预期停车，同时受利润和原料的制约。
四 | 未来海峡仍是基本面关注的重点，隔夜海峡局势出现一定的缓解。如果乙二醇进口恢复顺利，做多的关键因素将消失，甚至逐步进入过剩格局，但是如果未来海峡问题仍存在一定的反复，预计短期价格在悲观情绪释放后仍存在一定的支撑。 乙二醇库存 编辑：武宇杰 审核：赵洪虎/F0303315、Z0012132/ 复核：于心悦 报告完成日期：2026年8月26日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2012〕38号责任编辑：李铁民。
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